Today's TV races
The two-mile handicap hurdle at Newbury's February meeting has been enthralling, rewarding and infuriating punters in various guises since the mid-1960s. Now sponsored by Betfair, it has also been the Schweppes, the Tote Gold Trophy and the Totesport Trophy and it has become a betting-related version of Carbon-14. The sponsor's name and the winner which first pop into your head when you think of it will pinpoint with surprising accuracy exactly when your punting career began.
In the past, and in the distant past in particular, this race was the medium of many a plot but the strength in depth in the field is now so high that anyone being too cute in the earlier part of the season will stand little chance of getting a run. But that does not make it any less compelling and the latest renewal offers a typically fascinating combination of proven form, potential and endless possibilities.
Irish Saint is the one who is clearly ahead of the handicapper, as he carries just a 5lb penalty for an 11-length win at Ascot last month. He drops back nearly half a mile in trip here, however, and while the heavy ground will slow the rest of them down, even 6-1 is no price to be taking about a horse with something still to prove at the trip in a race as competitive as this one.
Dell'Arca, the Greatwood Hurdle winner, has big-field form at the trip and runs off the same mark as when hampered and unseating Tom Scudamore three out in The Ladbroke at Ascot. He would probably have been there or thereabouts but he was not travelling like an obvious handicap blot, and Cheltenian makes most appeal from among the market leaders. Philip Hobbs's eight-year-old has had only three starts since winning the Champion Bumper in 2011, including a 10th-place finish in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, and 134 looks a very fair mark for Saturday's assignment.
Even 9-1 is not giving much away, however, and, if ever there was a race demanding a tilt at an outsider with a chance on its best form, this is it. Gibb River (3.35) is the apparent second-string behind Rolling Star in Nicky Henderson's three-strong team but Tony McCoy has been booked to ride and he has had only two races since winning a strong handicap off a 2lb higher mark at Sandown in April 2012. He acts on soft going, appeared to retain plenty of ability when fifth at Ascot in November after 18 months off and looks to offer excellent value at 25-1.
Newbury 1.50
Upswing was just a length behind the handicap blot Champagne West when falling at the last over two and three quarter miles at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He has shown up well in other recent outings too but that will be reflected in his price in an open and competitive race and it may pay to side with another progressive type in Andy Kelly.
Warwick 2.05
Willie Mullins makes surprisingly few visits to Britain outside the major Festival meetings in the spring but Glens Melody has made the trip for her last two starts including a victory at this track in January. The next three runners home that day all reoppose here on either identical or worse terms and, though there is an extra two furlongs to cover, Glens Melody has plenty of form at two and a half miles and beyond, including a 12-length second behind Annie Power in a Grade One at Fairyhouse last March.
Newbury 2.25
Al Ferof stayed on to finish a respectable but fairly distant third in the King George VI Chase at Kempton last time without ever looking a likely winner. He should have the edge in class here, however, as Harry Topper has talent but little technique at his fences. Katenko would be a very credible rival if he could return to the form of his win off 147 in a competitive handicap chase at Cheltenham last January, but he has a little to prove after two runs this season, a fall in the Hennessy in November and fourth place in the Peter Marsh at Haydock, when his jumping was again a little hit-and-miss.
Warwick 2.40
Alan King's string was entering a lean spell when Balder Success could finish only fifth in the Grade One Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December. The stable is in a better place now but King is still not in the same kind of form as Venetia Williams, whose Brick Red is an interesting contender. The seven-year-old took a four-runner race off just 135 last time but was a steady and significant improver over hurdles last season and could find enough to make the step up in class.
Newbury 3.00
Dodging Bullets steps out of novice company after three straight wins so far this season and should have the quality to take this Grade Two on the way to the Festival. Others have more experience but none has the scope for further improvement of Paul Nicholls's runner, who beat Grandouet by 10 lengths in the Wayward Lad Novice Chase at Kempton last time out. Grandouet may not be the most natural recruit to chasing but Dodging Bullets is already as good over the bigger obstacles as he was over timber and should have plenty to come.
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