Saturday, February 8, 2014

Why NaVorro Bowman's Recovery Is Most Important Offseason Item for 49ers

When NaVorro Bowman tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee in the NFC Championship Game, it felt like two seasons for the San Francisco 49ers were slipping away.
Of course, the 49ers ultimately fell short against the Seattle Seahawks. That's when fans rushed to Twitter and other news mediums to find out the severity of Bowman's injury and a timetable for his return.
Bill Williamson of ESPN.com reported that Bowman went under the knife Tuesday. Williams wrote that the All-Pro linebacker will need six to eight months to recover.
But you never know with these nasty knee injuries, do you?
Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and MCL in late December 2012. When the 2013 season began eight months later, he was back and better than ever.
Players are generally returning faster, but you still have guys like Marcus Lattimore and NBA point guard Derrick Rose who need a longer recovery time (in fairness, Lattimore tore all four ligaments in his knee).
With the 2014 season set to begin in about seven months, the Niners need Bowman to get healthy more than anything else this offseason. Here's why.

49ers' best player
Bowman had the best season of his career in 2013.
He led the team in tackles (141), forced fumbles (six) and defensive touchdowns (1). He also had nine pass breakups, five sacks and two fumble recoveries.
Not surprisingly, advanced stats favored Bowman, too.
He scored the highest out of all inside linebackers by Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He led the 49ers in Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value.
49ers Leaders in Approximate Value 2013 2012 2011 Bowman 18 15 18 Kaepernick 15 9 N/A J. Smith 13 12 19 Staley 12 12 13 Willis 10 15 16 Pro Football Reference
After the NFC title game loss, Eric Reid opened up about the Bowman injury.
"He's our leader and arguably the best player we have," Reid told Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News. "To see him go down, it hurts."
No draft pick or free agent will make the type of impact Bowman did in 2013.
Not only is he statistically productive, but he also makes everyone around him better.

What he means schematically
Back in 2011, the Niners played a high percentage of their defensive snaps in their base 3-4 defense. They dominated opposing rushing attacks with their front seven, finishing No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per game.
As a trade-off, they were more susceptible to getting beat through the air. They were 16th in passing yards allowed per game and 10th in yards per attempt allowed. These are by no means bad numbers, but the 49ers were a bit vulnerable against great passing teams.
Starting in 2012, Vic Fangio and team higher-ups decided to play more 4-2-5 nickel defense. In this alignment, one of their three defensive linemen from their 3-4 defense is swapped for an extra cornerback.
What has followed is something to marvel. The 49ers, playing mostly with a "front six" instead of a "front seven," still ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed per game in 2012 and 2013.
Naturally, with an extra defensive back, the pass defense improved.

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